Big-Ticket Delivery Growth Just Got Cut in Half

Growth in delivery for furniture, appliances, and other oversized goods just got cut in half, and if you run a high-ticket store, this is the freight story worth ten minutes of your week.

A new report from Armstrong & Associates and the National Home Delivery Association, covered in detail by FreightWaves, values the big-and-bulky last-mile delivery market at $10.6 billion, expanding at a 5.1% compound annual rate through 2027. I track stories like this for Ecommerce Paradise because they change what it actually costs to run a furniture, appliance, or fitness equipment store, not just how much traffic you get.

That growth rate is down from 10.6% a year over the past eight years, roughly half the prior pace. The report is not blaming tariffs or ad platforms for the slowdown. It is blaming the housing market. Home turnover hit a 30-year low last year, according to Redfin, with only 28 homes out of every 1,000 changing hands nationwide, a 38% drop from the 44 per 1,000 sold during the 2021 buying frenzy.

I have watched this pattern play out on my own stores for years. People buy furniture when they move. When they stay put, they make do with what they already own. Right now almost nobody is moving, and it shows up directly in what carriers charge and which ones are still around by next spring.

Every cost in this story goes up this year: tariffs, freight, insurance, labor. See why Northwest keeps your registered agent fee the same price every renewal →

Big-and-Bulky Delivery Growth Just Got Cut in Half

Armstrong & Associates tracks the segment of last-mile delivery that parcel carriers cannot touch: furniture, mattresses, treadmills, refrigerators, anything that needs a box truck, a two-person crew, and often an in-home setup. The firm’s joint report with the National Home Delivery Association pegs this market at $10.6 billion today, growing to an estimated $12.3 billion by 2027 at a 5.1% compound annual rate. Over the prior eight years, the same segment grew at 10.6% a year. Growth did not slow gradually. It was cut in half.

Gross margins in the category dropped from 28.9% in 2022 to 27.5% last year. Revenue per shipment typically runs under $90, in line with standard less-than-truckload averages, though the range is wide. Basic curbside or threshold delivery can run as low as $50 per shipment. Full white-glove service with room placement and installation can bring in up to $250. If you are still charging one flat delivery fee regardless of service level, this is your signal to stop.

The three largest national big-and-bulky carriers by gross revenue are RXO Last Mile at $1.2 billion, Ryder E-commerce and Last Mile Services at $983 million, up 9.1% versus 2024, and J.B. Hunt Final Mile Services at $824 million, down 9.5% year over year. Werner Final Mile closed 2025 at $86 million, down 5.8%. That spread between Ryder’s growth and J.B. Hunt’s decline tells you this is not a uniform slowdown. Carriers that specialize and execute well are still taking share from carriers that treat it as a side business.

Two smaller names worth knowing if you are shopping for a new delivery partner: Deliveright and Frayt, both named in the report as emerging players building specifically around this category instead of bolting it onto a parcel network.

Labor is the bigger long-term worry according to the report. Rising wages in construction and hospitality are pulling drivers away from big-and-bulky delivery work, and federal enforcement against unauthorized commercial license holders is shrinking the pool of independent contractors carriers rely on. Cargo insurance costs are climbing too, and middle-mile less-than-truckload capacity into regional warehouses is getting scarcer. Every one of those line items eventually shows up in your freight bill, whether the carrier itemizes it or just raises the base rate.

Not every category inside big-and-bulky is shrinking. Carriers surveyed by Armstrong & Associates reported solid growth in delivery of construction materials to small contractors, and the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, which jumped from 25% to 50% in mid-2025 and were restructured again in April 2026 to apply to the full customs value of imported components, have made appliances and metal furniture measurably more expensive to land. Add fuel costs on top of that. Diesel prices have spiked since the Iran conflict, and that shows up on your freight invoice whether or not you ever mention it to a customer.

Redfin: Home Turnover Hit a 30-Year Low in 2025

Big-and-bulky demand tracks home sales almost one for one. When a family buys a house, they order a sectional, a mattress, a washer and dryer, sometimes all in the same month. When a family stays in the same house for another year, none of that spending happens.

Two forces are keeping people in place. First, prices are still high relative to income, tied to years of limited new construction and rising material costs. Second, homeowners who locked in mortgages under 5% during 2020 and 2021 are not willing to trade up into a new property at today’s mid-to-high 6% rate. Redfin’s data shows just 28 homes sold per 1,000 last year, down from 44 per 1,000 in 2021 and well below the pre-pandemic norm.

This is not a story that resolves itself quickly. Mortgage rates would need to fall substantially, or home prices would need to correct, for turnover to normalize. Neither looks imminent right now. In the meantime, carriers built for a decade of 10%-plus growth are recalibrating for a market growing at half that rate, and some of them will not make it through the transition.

What Falling Delivery Margins Mean for High-Ticket Stores

Delivery economics are exactly the kind of detail that separates a real high-ticket operation from a low-ticket side hustle. If you are newer to this model, my guide to what high-ticket dropshipping actually is explains why margin management like this matters so much more here than it does with a $30 impulse-buy product.

If you sell furniture, exercise equipment, mattresses, or major appliances, your delivery partner just became a bigger variable in your unit economics than it was two years ago. Gross margins in this category are compressing, which means carriers are going to push costs onto you one of two ways: higher base rates, or more aggressive accessorial fees for things that used to be included, like a second delivery attempt or a flight of stairs.

Run the math on your own SKUs. If you are doing under 20 big-and-bulky shipments a month, you are almost certainly paying closer to the $50 curbside rate and absorbing complaints when customers expected a full setup. Over 50 shipments a month, you have enough volume to negotiate a dedicated rate with a regional carrier and offer white-glove as a paid upsell, which the report shows can run as high as $250 per shipment. That gap, $50 to $250 on the same delivery, is margin you are currently leaving on the table if every customer gets the same generic shipping line item.

Watch the vertical integration angle too. Wayfair has expanded its CastleGate Logistics network to 15 fulfillment centers across three countries, delivering in as little as two days to 97% of its customers according to Supply Chain Dive. Lowe’s spent $8.8 billion in 2025 acquiring Foundation Building Materials to control more of its own supply chain, and Amazon now sells its in-house logistics capability directly to other retailers through Amazon Supply Chain Services.

These companies are not just competitors on price anymore. They are competitors on delivery experience, and they can subsidize it in ways an independent store cannot. I break down shifts like this in more depth every week for members of my Patreon, since freight and tariff numbers move fast enough that a monthly blog post cannot keep up.

None of that means you cannot compete. Independent stores still win on niche expertise, phone-and-quote sales, and the kind of personal follow-up a vertically integrated giant cannot fake. The housing slowdown actually strengthens your hand in carrier negotiations. Volume is harder for carriers to find right now, so a store doing consistent monthly shipments has more pull at the negotiating table than it did two years ago, even if that volume is modest.

For sourcing, this is one more reason to lean on suppliers who ship domestically rather than overseas. A supplier two states away compresses your delivery window and your damage rate. My guide to finding suppliers for high-ticket dropshipping covers how to vet for exactly this.

The short version: audit your supplier mix against freight distance, not just unit price. Tools like Inventory Source and Spocket both let you filter specifically for US-based inventory.

Wholesale2b is worth a look too if you have not revisited your supplier list against shipping distance in the last year.

None of this is simple to manage on your own while also running ads and answering the phone. Renegotiating carrier contracts, auditing accessorial fees, and rebuilding a supplier list around shipping distance is exactly the kind of operational lift that eats a founder’s week. If that sounds like more than you want to take on solo, my turnkey done-for-you service builds and runs the whole store, freight relationships included, so you are not the one on hold with a carrier rep at 4pm on a Friday.

Furniture and appliances just got harder to ship profitably. Some high-ticket niches did not. Grab my free list of 1,000+ high-ticket niches →

How to Lock In White-Glove Delivery Before the Shakeout

The report is clear that the next 12 to 24 months bring consolidation among smaller regional operators. If you are picking or re-picking a niche in light of this, my high-ticket niches list flags which categories still have room to run. Here is what I would do this week if you are already running a furniture, fitness, or appliance store.

Audit your current carrier’s financial health. Ask directly how their volume changed in the last year and whether they are hiring or cutting routes. A carrier quietly shrinking its service area is a carrier you do not want to discover mid-holiday-season.
Get two backup quotes from regional 3PLs, not just your national carrier. A tool like Easyship makes it easy to compare multiple carriers without manually calling each one, and regional operators are often more willing to negotiate a dedicated lane if you can commit to volume.
Rebuild your landed cost model to include the current 50% Section 232 duty on steel and aluminum content if you sell metal furniture, appliances, or fitness equipment with steel frames. Most stores I talk to are still pricing off last year’s numbers.
Price delivery by service tier, not as a flat fee. Curbside, threshold, and full white-glove setup are different costs to you and should be different line items at checkout. If you run on Shopify, this is a quick shipping-profile fix, not a rebuild.
Set delivery-window expectations before the sale, not after. An automated pre-delivery email through Omnisend cuts down on the “where is my order” tickets that eat your afternoon when a big-and-bulky shipment runs a day late.
Book time to map this out properly. If your freight strategy has not been touched since the tariffs last changed, a discovery call is the fastest way to get a second set of eyes on your specific numbers before Q4 volume hits.

Frequently Asked Questions

What counts as “big and bulky” delivery?
Anything too large or heavy for a standard parcel carrier to drop at the door, usually furniture, mattresses, major appliances, and exercise equipment that requires a box truck, a two-person crew, or in-home setup.

Why is big-and-bulky delivery growth slowing if ecommerce overall is still growing?
Demand for large-format goods tracks home moves more than it tracks general online spending, and home turnover hit a 30-year low in 2025, so fewer households are furnishing a new place at once.

Will my delivery rates go up because of this?
Likely yes for flat or generic rates, since gross margins in the category fell from 28.9% to 27.5% and carriers are passing cost pressure through in base rates and accessorial fees rather than absorbing it.

Should I switch from a national carrier to a regional 3PL?
Not automatically, but get quotes from at least one regional operator alongside your national carrier. Regional players are often more willing to negotiate a dedicated rate if you can commit to consistent volume.

How much do steel and aluminum tariffs actually add to my landed cost?
The Section 232 duty sits at 50% on qualifying steel and aluminum content as of mid-2025, expanded again in April 2026 to apply to the full customs value of some imported components, so metal furniture and appliances should be repriced against current duty rates, not last year’s.

What happens if my delivery partner gets acquired or shuts down mid-season?
You lose delivery capacity with little warning, which is exactly the scenario the report flags for smaller regional carriers over the next 12 to 24 months. Keep a backup carrier relationship active even if you rarely use it.

I am just starting a high-ticket store. Do I need to worry about this yet?
Not on day one, but factor realistic delivery costs into your margin math from the start, since a mispriced freight line is one of the fastest ways a new furniture or appliance store bleeds margin in year one.

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Freight is not the sexiest part of running a high-ticket store, but it is one of the few line items that can quietly wreck a quarter if you ignore it. Keep an eye on your carrier’s health, price delivery by service level, and revisit your landed cost math now that tariffs have moved again.

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Trevor Fenner

Trevor Fenner is an ecommerce entrepreneur and the founder of Ecommerce Paradise, a platform focused on helping entrepreneurs build and scale profitable high-ticket ecommerce and dropshipping businesses. With over a decade of hands-on experience, Trevor specializes in high-ticket dropshipping strategy, niche and product selection, supplier recruiting and onboarding, Google & Bing Shopping ads, ecommerce SEO, and systems-driven automation and scaling. Through Ecommerce Paradise, he provides free education via in-depth guides like How to Start High-Ticket Dropshipping, advanced training through the High-Ticket Dropshipping Masterclass, and fully done-for-you turnkey ecommerce services for entrepreneurs who want a faster, more hands-off path to growth. Trevor is known for emphasizing sustainable, real-world ecommerce models over hype-driven tactics, helping store owners build scalable, sellable, and location-independent brands.