49% of Holiday Shoppers Expect to Borrow, ICSC Survey Finds

Nearly half of American holiday shoppers told ICSC this week that they expect to borrow money to cover gifts they cannot pay for in full, and almost the same share worry they cannot afford the season at all. That is not what a record forecast usually looks like, yet the same survey still projects retail sales growth of 4.3% to 4.9%. If you run a store on Ecommerce Paradise principles, selling high-ticket products on Shopify, that gap between stressed wallets and rising totals is the whole story.

The ICSC 2026 Holiday Intentions Survey was fielded online from September 21 to 23 among 1,003 respondents. Retail Dive covered it on October 9. Below I walk through what was reported, how it fits with the other holiday forecasts, and then my read on what it means for a store selling furniture, equipment, or any item north of a few hundred dollars. I am not a financial advisor, and nothing here is investment or lending advice.

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What the ICSC Holiday Survey Says About Shoppers and Debt

Start with the numbers that were reported, because they are the foundation for everything else. According to the ICSC release, 88% of U.S. adults, roughly 237 million people, plan to buy holiday gifts or related items. Of those, 78% plan to spend the same or more than last year, and 83% say they can keep up with essential expenses.

Then the pressure points. In the same survey, 49% said they are concerned about affording holiday gifts, and 50% said personal or household debt will affect their holiday spending. The share who say job market concerns will affect their spending rose from 43% to 49% year over year.

The borrowing figures are the headline. ICSC reported that 49% expect to borrow to cover purchases they cannot pay for in full, and 47% expect holiday expenses to delay or reduce debt repayment, savings, or retirement contributions. Another 23% expect to still be paying for 2026 holiday purchases in 2027.

Shopping behavior is shifting too. The survey found 58% expect to try a new brand and 52% plan to shop with a retailer they have not used before. About 27% plan more research or comparison shopping because of higher prices or budget concerns, and 25% expect to switch to lower-priced products or brands.

Among shoppers who plan to spend more, more than four in ten expect to buy fewer items, choose cheaper alternatives, or buy secondhand. Discounts matter as well: 68% said discounts, promotions, and exclusive offers will encourage additional store trips.

The AI numbers matter for anyone who sells online. ICSC reported that 61% of holiday shoppers plan to use AI tools or assistants, up from 47% in 2025. The planned uses are comparing prices at 29%, researching products and features at 19%, checking availability at 18%, and finding deals at 16%, and 86% intend to do additional research before they buy.

ICSC President and CEO Tom McGee framed the findings as a call to retailers, saying that competitive prices, convenient shopping options, and experiences that bring people together are non-negotiable. Retail Dive quoted him saying shoppers remain resilient but are more discerning and value-conscious. Those are his words as reported, not mine.

Why the Holiday Forecast Still Points Up

It can feel contradictory that nearly half of shoppers are nervous while the forecast climbs. The reported numbers resolve it, at least partly: most people are still spending, and a smaller group is spending a lot. ICSC noted that the top 10% of shoppers expect to spend five times more than the average consumer, which pulls the total up even if the median household is pulling back.

Adobe’s online forecast, as relayed by Retail Dive on September 28, points the same direction. Adobe projects U.S. online holiday sales of $275.1 billion from November 1 to December 31, up 6.7% year over year. Digital Commerce 360 also covered the projection.

For high-ticket sellers, two Adobe line items stand out. Furniture is forecast at $33.4 billion, up 7.3%, and buy now, pay later is forecast at $21.3 billion, up 6.6%, including $1.09 billion on Cyber Monday alone. Adobe also projects AI traffic to U.S. online retail sites up 130% year over year.

Cyber Week, running Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is forecast at $47.5 billion, up 7.4%. Black Friday is projected at $12.9 billion, up 9.2%, and Cyber Monday at more than $15 billion, up 6.2%. We already saw a preview of how this behaves in October, when Prime Big Deal Days spending results showed shoppers willing to spend when a deadline and a discount lined up.

One discrepancy deserves a flag. The ICSC release says total expected holiday spend will top $1.7 trillion. Retail Dive’s own analysis section says ICSC projects holiday spending to top $1 trillion, while its summary brief says $1.7 trillion, and the article does not reconcile the two. I am using the ICSC release figure of more than $1.7 trillion, and I would treat the $1 trillion reference as unconfirmed until ICSC clarifies.

There is also a caution on the survey itself. It is a single online poll of 1,003 people taken over three days, and self-reported intentions are not purchases. Separately, a Basis survey of 2,006 consumers fielded in May and covered by Chain Store Age found 35% planning to spend more in 2026 than 2025, and among them 64% cited inflation raising gift costs as the main reason. Some of the extra dollars you see in forecasts are simply higher prices, not more stuff.

That price pressure has been building for months. If you want the macro backdrop, start with New York Fed research on tariff price effects. Then read about falling consumer confidence ahead of a Fed hike to see how we got to a consumer who is still spending but checking every receipt.

What Stretched Holiday Shoppers Mean for High-Ticket Stores

This is where I stop reporting and start giving you my read. My read is that the survey does not say high-ticket demand is dying. It says the way people pay, and the amount of proof they want before paying, is changing faster than most store pages are.

When 49% expect to borrow, financing stops being a nice extra and becomes part of the product. If a customer is looking at a $1,800 item and the page only shows the sticker price, they are doing the monthly math in another tab, and you may lose them there. A visible monthly payment on the product page, backed by whatever BNPL option your processor supports, answers the question before it becomes a reason to leave.

Here is a hypothetical to make the point, not a forecast. Imagine an $1,800 item offered with a 12-month plan at 0% APR: the shopper sees about $150 a month instead of $1,800 today. The price did not change, but for a household worried about affording gifts, the decision moved from a savings question to a monthly budget question. We saw big retailers lean into exactly this when Wayfair expanded Klarna 0% APR.

Be honest with yourself about the downside. Financing fees get paid by you in most setups, so your margin has to absorb them, and a shopper who borrows for a purchase is more likely to feel buyer’s remorse if delivery is late. In a season where 47% say they may delay debt repayment, a bad delivery experience on a financed order is a refund request waiting to happen. Pair financing with firm delivery promises, and track your own order data before trusting any national survey.

The second shift is research. With 86% planning additional research and 27% planning more comparison shopping, the shopper arriving at your store is already skeptical. High-ticket buyers have always read more than impulse buyers, but now they are doing it with AI assistants, and Adobe’s 130% rise in AI traffic to retail sites says those assistants are sending real visitors. Our look at how AI shopping picks favor big retailers is a useful reminder that a small store has to be easy for a machine to verify.

In practice that means your product data has to be clean: specs, dimensions, shipping times, return terms, and warranty information written in plain language, with structured data underneath. If you are earlier in the journey, the what is high-ticket dropshipping guide covers the model before you get into optimization.

Third, trust. With 58% willing to try a new brand and 52% willing to shop with a retailer they have not used before, new stores have a real opening this season. The same survey says those shoppers want proof. A clear returns page, a real phone number, and fast answers in chat do more work than another banner. A support tool like Gorgias keeps tickets in one inbox. Tidio can answer the repetitive pre-sale questions while you sleep.

Fourth, post-purchase communication. A shopper who borrowed for your product wants to know where it is. Tracking pages from AfterShip cut down on “where is my order” tickets. That matters more when the carriers get crowded, as they do every peak season, which we tracked in UPS and FedEx peak surcharges.

Fifth is email, which I think most small sellers underweight. The shopper who is 49% worried about affording gifts is also the shopper who reads your email at midnight and waits for the offer. Email is cheaper than ads, and a well-built flow lifts revenue without discounting everything. I point readers to Omnisend for that.

Our guide to ecommerce email marketing flows lays out which flows to build first. If you are tracking leads on larger-ticket orders, a CRM such as HubSpot keeps follow-ups from slipping.

The sixth point is operational, not marketing. A stretched consumer means more disputes, and a disputed high-ticket order is expensive. That is part of why I tell clients to set up the legal entity properly before the busy season rather than during it. If you do not want to run any of this yourself, that is what our turnkey done-for-you store service exists for, and I will say plainly that it is built for owners who would rather buy a running store than learn every moving part.

One more caution on the AI numbers. A planned use of AI is not a purchase, and ICSC’s breakdown shows price comparison leading at 29%, which suggests the early adopters are hunting for the lowest price. If your product is priced above the cheapest listing, your job is to explain why, with specifics, in words a shopper and an assistant can both quote.

Want a second set of eyes on your financing, product pages, and holiday offers before the rush? Book coaching with Trevor →

What I’d Do This Week to Get a Store Ready for Borrowing Shoppers

None of this requires a rebuild. What I’d do this week, in order of effort, is below. Treat it as an operator’s checklist, not a guarantee of results.

Show the monthly price. Turn on financing messaging on your product pages inside Shopify if your payment setup supports it, and check the checkout flow on a phone. Our breakdown of the high-ticket sales process explains why price framing matters.
Audit your product pages for AI and human skeptics. Add exact dimensions, materials, shipping windows, and return terms in plain text. If you use an assistant such as Claude to tighten copy, feed it your supplier specs and review every claim yourself.
Publish your shipping cutoffs. Check supplier lead times with the people who actually ship your items, and write the dates on the page. Our high-ticket ecommerce holiday calendar for 2026 lays out the dates to work backward from.
Plan the offer, not just the discount. With 68% saying promotions drive extra trips, a structured promotion helps, but a blanket markdown can erase your margin. Use the sales and holiday promo playbook to choose between bundles, financing offers, and limited-time perks.
Get your books ready for the volume. More orders and more refunds mean messier numbers. A tool like Finaloop automates ecommerce bookkeeping. If you pay overseas suppliers, Wise can cut currency conversion costs compared with some bank wires.
Set a refund and dispute rule before the rush. Decide in advance what you will refund automatically, what needs a photo, and who answers disputes. Write it down so a helper or a virtual assistant can follow it.

If you have been waiting for a sign that the season is going to be tough, this survey is not it. It is a sign the season will reward stores that make buying feel safe and affordable. I would rather you adjust your pages this week than read the post-holiday survey in January and wish you had.

For readers who want to see how other platforms and retailers are positioning for this, the read on what Prime Big Deal Days meant for high-ticket stores is a good companion. Separately, the TikTok Shop median product price data shows how far the price conversation sits from classic high-ticket territory.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the ICSC 2026 Holiday Intentions Survey find about borrowing?
ICSC reported that 49% of shoppers expect to borrow to cover holiday purchases they cannot pay for in full, and 47% expect holiday expenses to delay or reduce debt repayment, savings, or retirement contributions. The survey polled 1,003 people online from September 21 to 23, 2026.

Is holiday retail spending still expected to grow in 2026?
Yes. ICSC forecasts retail sales growth of 4.3% to 4.9%, and Adobe projects U.S. online holiday sales of $275.1 billion, up 6.7%, as reported by Retail Dive. Forecasts are not results, and some of the growth reflects higher prices rather than more units sold.

Which number is right for total holiday spending, $1.7 trillion or $1 trillion?
The ICSC release says more than $1.7 trillion. Retail Dive’s article cites $1.7 trillion in its brief and $1 trillion in its analysis without reconciling them, so I rely on the ICSC figure and treat the other as unconfirmed.

Should a high-ticket store offer financing this holiday season?
My read is that it is worth testing, since Adobe forecasts BNPL at $21.3 billion for the season. Check the fees you will pay, confirm what your payment provider supports, and compare conversion before and after. The personal agent protocol from Shopify and Stripe is also worth watching as checkout changes.

How does AI shopping change what I should do on my product pages?
ICSC says 61% of holiday shoppers plan to use AI tools, up from 47% last year, and Adobe projects AI traffic to retail sites up 130%. Clear specs, return terms, and shipping details help both people and assistants. See also the Google UCP hub in Merchant Center for how feeds are evolving.

Already have a store doing sales and want to grow through peak season without doing it all yourself? See how the scaling service works →

That is the read for this week. Shoppers are stretched, forecasts are still up, and the stores that win are the ones that make a big purchase feel manageable and trustworthy. I will keep tracking how the real holiday numbers compare with these intentions. If you want a deeper start on the model itself, begin with what is dropshipping and build from there, and I wish you the best of luck this season.

If you found this useful, these guides go deeper on related topics:

Trevor Fenner

Trevor Fenner is an ecommerce entrepreneur and the founder of Ecommerce Paradise, a platform focused on helping entrepreneurs build and scale profitable high-ticket ecommerce and dropshipping businesses. With over a decade of hands-on experience, Trevor specializes in high-ticket dropshipping strategy, niche and product selection, supplier recruiting and onboarding, Google & Bing Shopping ads, ecommerce SEO, and systems-driven automation and scaling. Through Ecommerce Paradise, he provides free education via in-depth guides like How to Start High-Ticket Dropshipping, advanced training through the High-Ticket Dropshipping Masterclass, and fully done-for-you turnkey ecommerce services for entrepreneurs who want a faster, more hands-off path to growth. Trevor is known for emphasizing sustainable, real-world ecommerce models over hype-driven tactics, helping store owners build scalable, sellable, and location-independent brands.